COP 15: World leaders must take into account the scientific evidence

Carlos Nobre is a researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and, as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, was a recipient of the 2007 Nobel Prize for the contribution of the Panel to the climate science.In this interview, Nobre talks about the Brazilian experience in using satellite imagery to monitor tropical forests and the challenge of bringing together science and policy at COP 15

In 2008, the Brazilian Government created the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change. What are the initiatives that are under development?

The Brazilian Panel on Climate Change is an organism similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It does not conduct or foment researches. What in fact is this panel’s role is the systematic and strict assessment of the state of the scientific knowledge in Brazil. Where climate alterations are happening? In which speed the clime is changing? What are the impacts that are occurring in all sectors, health, in the cities, agriculture, biodiversity and what are the future impacts, based on the projected scenarios?

We expect to answer this level’s questions, as well as mapping the successful experiences.Brazil has many effective actions with good results in tackling deforestation, the main country’s challenge to reduce its emissions.

Therefore, we are working to conclude the first report by 2012. Having this concluded we will be able to send this document to the IPCC that will launch the 5° Evaluation Report in 2014.

Brazil is the leader in the monitoring of rainfall forests. Are there any plans or strategy for the country to become a capacity building multiplier agent in other countries?

"Definitely, Brazil has the best world monitoring system of vegetation chang" Carlos Nobre

Definitely, Brazil has the best world monitoring system of vegetation change. In the Amazon we already have great experience and now the next step is mapping the Cerrado (Brazilian Savannah), until the whole country is covered. It is about 21 years of experience that may be replicated in many parts of the world.

There are partnerships with the Amazon countries nowadays. This cooperation starts to cross the Atlantic towards Africa. Recently, Indonesia has manifested its interest in knowing about our experience. In the last three years, Africa’s deforestation rate has been higher than Brazil’s.

How a future climate agreement may contribute to Brazil widen up the international cooperation in this area?

The accumulation of knowledge and the technology acquired by Brazil throughout these 21 years will be fundamental for when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change approves a mechanism of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Many countries will need a trustable monitoring system and we want our systems to be applied universally, specially in tropical countries.

Furthermore, a new system will be launched in December, which will monitor the deforestation and the vegetation change, and calculate how much this represents in terms of emissions reductions. It is a carbon account system for uses of land, developed by many Brazilian institutions.

Is there any optimism hoping that the negotiations in Copenhagen will not be merely political?

I still believe that the main leaders will take into account the scientific evidences that the IPCC has been showing, specially the alert for the dangerous increase of temperature and the consequence of the inaction.

Therefore, I still hope that the nations will not step out from their responsibilities and that the commitments will be of long range. Obviously, the USA has a world leadership role and it is impossible to imagine an advance of the negotiations without a strong position of this nation.

It is never excessive to remind that if we do not manage to change the global warming curve in the next 20 or 30 years, there is a very high risk of experiencing irreversible climate change. It could take thousands of years so that the planet could recover the balance. All the efforts are indispensable in this critical moment, in which we are taking the risk to let the planet overheat dangerously.

Since the creation of the IPCC, in 1988, there was a great advance in the communication between the scientific community and the society, but there is still the need to transform these changes into attitudes. What is the path?

It is undeniable that in the last 15, 20 years there was an expressive increase in the level of awareness of the global society on issues linked to environment. The media started to dedicate more attention to the theme and the information already circulates with much more facilities due to the gravity of the situation

However, there is still the need to transform knowledge into action. Citizens should not wait for the governors, it is not enough. It is also necessary that the humanity goes through a cultural transformation towards a post-consumerism level, understanding that it is necessary to decrease quality of life, but achieving it with another perspective.

In this sense, there is a long path and it is necessary to invest in environmental education for all. Children and teenagers should be stimulated to think the world with a different perspective, in a sense that they can feel themselves as changing agents and responsible for the future world.