Jacques Marcovitch is a Professor from the School of Economics, Management and Accountancy from the University of São Paulo (FEA/USP), Researcher since 2002 of the implementation policies of the Climate Convention, with emphasis on the strategies that aim the reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. He is also the general coordinator of the study Economics of Clime.

The study Economics of Clime was launched in a crucial moment, in which the countries work to build a new global agreement, during the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP 15). In your view, what is the challenge for an effective multilateral action?

Certainly, one of the main obstacles in any negotiation is the inflexibility. But the good news is that there have been many significant advances. Just a little while ago, we had the obstinate resistance of the United States to comply with reduction goals. Emergent countries that registered high growth rates – included in the list of greater polluters, like China, were exempt of any obligation, supported by the differentiated responsibilities principle, have also changed the speech and go to Copenhagen with numbers.

"Certainly, one of the main obstacles in any negotiation is the inflexibility" Jacques Marcovitch

In this context, Brazil performs an extraordinary role in the international scenario and it is also demonstrating a great disposition and clarity of its objectives for a new climate agreement. The presentation of goal is a great step.

According to the studied scenarios, how could the Brazilian economy grow based on environmental criteria?

In the most developed regions the growth will happen through technological innovations that will be incorporated in the productive arrangements. The regions centered in the use of natural resources will develop through the preservation of these resources, reducing the deforestation and securing the economic use of the biodiversity.

owever, in a more comprehensive way, it is fundamental to understand that we are finalizing the first decade of the Century and Brazil has started to build its new reality and is inserted in a new strategic geopolitical picture. The country is demonstrating to be committed to a development towards a low carbon economy.

Moreover, we should consider that in the next year, the country will go through a great debate in the political sphere and the climate issues are expected to be in the agenda. Therefore, parallel to the political scenario, the scientific community has the obligation to appoint and prepare, throughout studies and researches like this study, the minimum results to be reached by 2020.

Based on the built knowledge and with the comprehension of the interdependency among clime, agriculture, energy, transport, health and use of land, we have to search for the results that we should aim by 2020. The question is: how should we start 2011?

The data speak for themselves. It is estimated, in a graver scenario that with the climate change impact the Brazilian GDP may be reduced in 2.3% in 2050.

How can the governments take ownership of the studies?

Many components of the study have been made available to the Government and that is way we can clearly affirm that it is already incorporated in several public policies. The Ministries of Environment, Science and Technology, and Foreign Affairs, as well as the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change have been already following up the developing work.

It is important to highlight that the actions in the Amazon are clear examples of the incorporation of our data, since the Government already demonstrates the understanding and effort to reduce the deforestation. From the economic point of view, the study shows that it is viable and profitable the search for this goal and this is already being applied. The energetic planning, with the increase of investment in wind power is another example.The state and municipal governments can and should also use this information.

What are the main mitigation opportunities pointed out by the study?

Overall, the transition to a low carbon economy can only bring economic return to the country. Today, we already have a significant change in course. Green jobs are already being generated, the universities are already preparing and offering careers in this area and the productive sector already recognizes that need to advance in terms of clean technology. However, the study points out some opportunities, like carbon taxation and returns from investments in agricultural and energy areas. By taxating the carbon between US$ 30 and US$ 50 per ton of carbon, the country would reduce the national emissions between 1.16% and 1.87%. In the energetic sector, by taking the 2030 Energy National Plan as a reference, the estimated potential of emission reductions, with initiatives of energetic efficiency, would of 1.8 billions of CO2 tones accumulated in the period of 2010 and 2030. In this scenario, there could be a gain of US$ 34 billions in 2030, equivalent to US$ 13 per ton of CO2.

These numbers show that it is possible to go towards a green economy. Brazil could even, lead the regional block, Latin America. Therefore, it can, undoubtedly, implement measurable, verifiable and reportable instruments and create both induction and punishment mechanisms. It is necessary to incentive good practices with bonus.

December 17, 2009